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Food consumption, diet shifts and associated non-CO2 greenhouse gases from
agricultural production
Alexander Popp *, Hermann Lotze-Campen, Benjamin Bodirsky
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), PO Box 60 12 03, 14412 Potsdam, Germany
1. Introduction
Currently, agriculture accounts for approximately 14% of total
global anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions (5.1–6.1 Gt CO2-
eq/yr in 2005) and is responsible for about 47% and 58% of total
anthropogenic emissions of methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide
(N2O) (IPCC, 2007). CH4 contributes about 3.3 Gt CO2-eq/yr and
N2O 2.8 Gt CO2-eq/yr, whereas the contribution of CO2 emissions is
negligible (US-EPA, 2006; IPCC, 2007; Stern, 2006). CH4 is produced
by anaerobic decomposition of organic matter, mainly associated
with enteric fermentation of ruminants. Other sources of CH4 in
agriculture are rice cultivation and manure storage. N2O emissions
from agriculture are basically related to nitrogen fertilizers and
manure applied to soils, but also manure storage.
In the past, global agricultural CH4 and N2O emissions have
increased by nearly 17% from 1990 to 2005, an average annual
emission increase of about 60 Mt CO2-eq/yr (IPCC, 2007). But, the
magnitude and relative importance of the different sources and
emissions vary widely between regions as developing countries
account for the major share (almost three quarters) of agricultural
emissions (Stern, 2006).
As a result of ongoing population growth, rising per capita
caloric intake and changing dietary preferences, such as an
increased consumption of meat and dairy products, demand for
agricultural products in the future is anticipated to increase
significantly, especially in Asia, Latin America, and Africa. Global
land use and associated GHG emissions will change in the future,
reacting to these pressures. Increases in consumption have to be
met by production gains from increased land use intensity or
agricultural expansion. At the international level, shifting certain
parts of agricultural production to more productive countries and
increasing international trade flows may be an economically
efficient way to increase overall productivity (Lotze-Campen et al.,
in press). While the combined impacts of all these interplays are
still highly uncertain, GHG from the agricultural sector will be
affected. Projecting their future development is important to
assess their impacts on the climate system as well as mitigation
potentials and options from the agricultural sector.
Global Environmental Change 20 (2010) 451–462
A R T I C L E I N F O
Article history:
Received 29 August 2009
Received in revised form 6 February 2010
Accepted 9 February 2010
Keywords:
Greenhouse gas emissions
Agriculture
Food consumption
Mitigation
Spatially explicit simulation model
A B S T R A C T
Today, the agricultural sector accounts for approximately 15% of total global anthropogenic emissions,
mainly methane and nitrous oxide. Projecting the future development of agricultural non-CO2
greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is important to assess their impacts on the climate system but poses
many problems as future demand of agricultural products is highly uncertain.We developed a global land
use model (MAgPIE) that is suited to assess future anthropogenic agricultural non-CO2 GHG emissions
from various agricultural activities by combining socio-economic information on population, income,
food demand, and production costs with spatially explicit environmental data on potential crop yields. In
this article we describe how agricultural non-CO2 GHG emissions are implemented within MAgPIE and
compare our simulation results with other studies. Furthermore, we apply the model up to 2055 to assess
the impact of future changes in food consumption and diet shifts, but also of technological mitigation
options on agricultural non-CO2 GHG emissions. As a result, we found that global agricultural non-CO2
emissions increase significantly until 2055 if food energy consumption and diet preferences remain
constant at the level of 1995. Non-CO2 GHG emissions will rise even more if increasing food energy
consumption and changing dietary preferences towards higher value foods, like meat and milk, with
increasing income are taken into account. In contrast, under a scenario of reduced meat consumption,
non-CO2 GHG emissions would decrease even compared to 1995. Technological mitigation options in the
agricultural sector have also the capability of decreasing non-CO2 GHG emissions significantly. However,
these technological mitigation options are not as effective as changes in food consumption. Highest
reduction potentials will be achieved by a combination of both approaches.
2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
* Corresponding author. Tel.: +49 331 977 1959; fax: +49 331 977 1948.
E-mail address: popp@pik-potsdam.de (A. Popp).
Contents lists available at ScienceDirect
Global Environmental Change
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/gloenvcha
0959-3780/$ – see front matter 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2010.02.001

Name: Almonte,Yeny  Project Topic: Food Production and Greenhouse Gas Emissions

• Complete Citation

Popp, A., Lotze-Campen, H., & Bodirsky, B. (2010). Food consumption, diet shifts and associated non-CO2 greenhouse gases from agricultural production. Global environmental change, 20(3), 451-462.

• Key Words

Keywords: Anthropogenic agricultural gas emission, Diet shifts, Higher value foods, Meat consumption, Greenhouse gas emissions

• Scientific Problem

Agricultural sector is one of the biggest contributors to global anthropogenic emissions of non CO2 gasses, which are known for their huge impact on the climate system. The negative impact of agricultural sector on greenhouse gas emissions is expected to increase as the number of people on Earth grows as well as their diet shifts. That is why, the scientists decided to create a model for seeing the potential changes in greenhouse gas emissions based on changes in agricultural changes.

• Hypothesis and/or Objectives

The authors main objective was to present the MAgPIE (a Model of Agricultural Production and its Impact on the Environment) model and to apply it for testing how changing consumptions patterns in the agricultural sector may impact global emission of non-CO2 greenhouse gases.

• Methodology

The authors took MAgPIE model, which is a global land use model which includes agricultural demand and the cost of production. Then they applied the model under several scenarios in order to assess the global impact of possible changes in food consumption on non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions produced by agricultural sector. The first applied scenario was a scenario with initial rate of agricultural land expansion. It is called “business-as-usual” scenario in the paper. The second applied scenario was based on an increased meat consumption. The third applied scenario was based on a decreased meat scenario. The fourth applied scenario combined increase in meat consumption with technical mitigation. The fifth applied scenario included decreased meat consumption with technical mitigation.

• Results

The results of the study showed several possible outcomes by the 2055 based on which strategy will happen.

• If the current tendencies in agricultural sector continue, by the 2055 the non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions will increase dramatically.
• In case the milk-and-meat industry and other high-value products will expand due to increased demand, the emission of non-CO2 greenhouse gasses will increase even more.
• However, if the high-value products consumption reduces, the emission of non-CO2 greenhouse gasses may become even lower than it used to be in 1995.
• Additionally, technological mitigation options influence was stated as the one which contributes to the decrease of non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions.
• Technological mitigation was found to be less effective than changes in people`s food consumption behavior.

• Key Points and Significance

One of the most significant findings in this study is that the authors managed to show in numbers how exactly do non-CO2 greenhouse gasses will increase in case of sticking to the current tendencies in agricultural sector and in human dietary preferences.

One more important finding is that it is possible not only to lower the growth of non-CO2 greenhouse gas emission, but also to decrease non-CO2 greenhouse gasses production levels lower than they used to be in 1995.

• Key Figures and/or Tables

Figure 1 is called “Information flow within the modeling system”. It is important as it explains why the information taken from the MAgPIE can really be trustworthy. In particular, the figure shows that the MAgPIE takes into account the fundamental elements of agricultural production process like economic and biophysical inputs, economic and biogeochemical outputs, and the expected greenhouse gasses emissions.

Figure 10 is called “Global emissions for (A) diet shift + scenario, (B) diet shift scenario, (C) diet shift + scenario M and (D) diet shift  scenario M”. It is the most sufficient figure in the whole study as it shows all the results on one graph. The figure shows the dynamics of the non-CO2 greenhouse gas emission in case of diet shift with or without baseline scenario and in case of diet shift with or without mitigation scenario.

• Weaknesses and/or Future Work Necessary

In general, the study is awesome as it provides precise information about how much exactly the non-CO2 greenhouse gas emission can be decreased or increased in case of different strategies in human consumption behavior and agricultural technologies. The results of the study give hope that people are able to reverse the situation with non-CO2 greenhouse gas emission and minimize it to even lower levels than it used to be in 1995.

Although the study is genius, there is one weakness that could have been fixed. The extrapolation of the results up to 2055 looks impressive but non-realistic, as it does not include the aside factors that are non-predictable now. In other words, it should be better if the study showed tendency up to the closer period like 2040 or even 2030. According to the results, the humanity may access lower than in 1995 level of gas emissions already by 2030 or even earlier.