Can Autonomous Vehicles Eventually Replace Human Drivers Discussion The topic of your paper should be a problem or open question about AI closely related t

Can Autonomous Vehicles Eventually Replace Human Drivers Discussion The topic of your paper should be a problem or open question about AI closely related to one of
the topics of the class. (And I have chosen a topic with the professor which is “Can Autonomous Vehicles Eventually Replace Human Drivers?”)The paper has two parts: In Part
1, you spell out the relevant background of the problem you discuss, and explain what the problem
is in some detail. In Part 2, you write your suggestion about how the problem you discuss might be resolvedThe two main components of Part 1 of the paper are 1) that it provides the relevant
background of the problem you discuss, and 2) that it explains in some detail what the problem is. Part 1 should be around 3000 words. Part 2 should be around 1000 words. I have written a possible outline as attached, also a book as a source that can be helpful. Topic: Can Autonomous Vehicles Eventually Replace Human Drivers?
Introduction
Background
•
What exactly is AI
•
How AI emerge
•
History of self-driving vehicles
•
Basic AI mechanism of autonomous vehicles
What the problem is
•
Technical difficulties that autonomous vehicles encountered
o
Uncertainties during driving
▪
Weather
▪
Unstandardized pavement lines
▪
broken signs
▪
human driver and pedestrian behaviors
o Partially observed current environment
o Communication between autonomous vehicles and other human drivers
o Autonomy interaction
•
Consumer side
o Consumers’ acceptance and trust
o Price of autonomous vehicles
•
Legal responsibility
Solving Problem
•
Possible ways, technical or untechnical, to solve the problems above
Topic: Can Autonomous Vehicles Eventually Replace Human Drivers?
Introduction
Background
•
What exactly is AI
•
How AI emerge
•
History of self-driving vehicles
•
Basic AI mechanism of autonomous vehicles
What the problem is
•
Technical difficulties that autonomous vehicles encountered
o
Uncertainties during driving
▪
Weather
▪
Unstandardized pavement lines
▪
broken signs
▪
human driver and pedestrian behaviors
o Partially observed current environment
o Communication between autonomous vehicles and other human drivers
o Autonomy interaction
•
Consumer side
o Consumers’ acceptance and trust
o Price of autonomous vehicles
•
Legal responsibility
Solving Problem
•
Possible ways, technical or untechnical, to solve the problems above
Some sources I founded might be helpful:
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/rob.20255
http://www.webmail.cvlibs.net/publications/Geiger2012CVPR.pdf
https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/full/10.1098/rsta.2010.0110
https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/1555343417695197
https://www.ri.cmu.edu/pub_files/pub2/thorpe_charles_1991_2/thorpe_charles_1991_2.pdf
http://sebastian-ramos.net/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/wacv15.pdf
https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Sebastian_Brechtel/publication/267040968_Probabilistic_DecisionMaking_under_Uncertainty_for_Autonomous_Driving_using_Continuous_POMDPs/links/5443f7b30cf2a76a3
ccd6a0d/Probabilistic-Decision-Making-under-Uncertainty-for-Autonomous-Driving-using-ContinuousPOMDPs.pdf
http://www.lookingatpeople.com/intsys99.pdf
https://www.ingentaconnect.com/contentone/ist/ei/2017/00002017/00000019/art00012?crawler=true&mimetyp
e=application/pdf
https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-662-48847-8_7
Markus Maurer · J. Christian Gerdes
Barbara Lenz · Hermann Winner Editors
Autonomous
Driving
Technical, Legal
and Social Aspects
Sponsored by:
Autonomous Driving
Markus Maurer J. Christian Gerdes
Barbara Lenz Hermann Winner
•
•
Editors
Autonomous Driving
Technical, Legal and Social Aspects
Editors
Markus Maurer
Institut für Regelungstechnik
Technische Universität Braunschweig
Braunschweig, Niedersachsen
Germany
Barbara Lenz
Institut für Verkehrsforschung
Deutsches Zentrum für Luftund Raumfahrt e. V., Berlin
Germany
J. Christian Gerdes
Department of Mechanical Engineering
Stanford University
Stanford, CA
USA
Hermann Winner
Fachgebiet Fahrzeugtechnik
TU Darmstadt
Darmstadt, Hessen
Germany
ISBN 978-3-662-48845-4
DOI 10.1007/978-3-662-48847-8
ISBN 978-3-662-48847-8
(eBook)
Library of Congress Control Number: 2016930537
© The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s) 2015, 2016. This book is published open access.
Translation from the German language edition: Autonomes Fahren by Maurer, Gerdes, Lenz, Winner, © Daimler
und Benz-Stiftung, Ladenburg 2015. All Rights Reserved.
Open Access This book is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International
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The registered company is Springer-Verlag GmbH Berlin Heidelberg
Foreword
Society and Mobility
As by clear evidence: We are on the brink of the next mobile revolution. Autonomous
vehicles will become an element of road traffic. The data needed is provided by cameras
and sensors, and processed in real time by a computer in fractions of a second. These
vehicles permanently exchange information with one another and with the transport
infrastructure. Driving robots are to successively relieve the driver of individual tasks.
Nonetheless, the technological perspective of autonomous driving is only one aspect of
many. Autonomous vehicles will also have a direct impact on our society that today we
can barely imagine. Numerous critical questions arise: What are the prospects concerning
data security? How shall we deal with wide-ranging interventions in our own mobile
autonomy? What problems result when an autonomous vehicle crosses national borders?
In what form will insurance companies assume liability for autonomous vehicles involved
in accidents in the future? Or, vice versa: Can we continue to leave humans at the wheel at
all, and may driving robots prove to increase road safety?
The Daimler and Benz Foundation considers the social dimension of these changes to
be of at least as great significance as the technological one. Innovative technologies are by
themselves insufficient to shape these developments and to realize automated driving in
our society. We are therefore well advised to already start asking ourselves such questions
today and not simply accept this profound change in our mobility as given, allowing it to
“overrun” us. To shed light on the ethical, social, legal, psychological, or transport-related
aspects of this process, the Daimler and Benz Foundation invited researchers from various
specialist fields to address this topic.
The project’s core team—Markus Maurer, Barbara Lenz, Hermann Winner, and
J. Christian Gerdes—identified the most pertinent questions from their point of view. At
the same time, the four researchers established an international network of renowned
specialists, who agreed to share their views and experience. The result before us now, a
v
vi
Foreword
“white paper”, analyzes the developments that can already be seen from an interdisciplinary perspective. It is the preliminary result of a large-scale funded project: Under the
name “Autonomous Driving—Villa Ladenburg”, it was given a time frame of around two
years and a budget of 1.5 million euros by the Daimler and Benz Foundation. Our
declared aim with the present findings is to make available an objective and independent
source of information.
To our minds, exploring the topic from an interdisciplinary perspective is indispensable. In the present volume, the authors therefore attempt an initial comprehensive account
of what we may judge as scientifically assertable at this moment in time. At the same time,
we must enable potential users of, and others affected by, the still difficult-to-grasp new
technologies to experience them firsthand. In this way, many people can begin to have an
idea of what they can expect and what the technology can actually do—and also what it
will not be able to do.
It is already becoming clear that three aspects come to the fore. Firstly, ethical questions will override all others. Only when autonomously acting vehicles have successfully
been provided with a kind of ethics in decision making will driving robotics be able to
assert itself in practice. This is especially true of so-called dilemma situations, in which it
has to be weighed up, in the case of an unavoidable collision, what behavior will cause the
least amount of harm to the persons involved both inside and outside the vehicle. A further
key question to clear up is what legislative consequences could result here (e.g., traffic
regulations).
A further matter concerns the performance of machine perception. This comes up
against various limits: Sensors, cameras, or assembled components degenerate and suffer
in their reliability over time. Although it is possible to estimate state uncertainties, and
from this to check machine-perception performance, will failures really be predictable?
And how could an autonomous machine’s safe state be at all defined under all conceivable
circumstances? This issue can be summed up even more clearly in one keyword: robotification. Ultimately, the specific questions addressed here without exception penetrate in
deeper forms into all areas of everyday life where autonomous machine systems are used.
Conditions here also need analyzing, and consequences must be anticipated.
Not least, automated driving can open up completely new opportunities, but also bring
with it negative aftereffects. A reduction or shifting of parking-space requirements in inner
cities and an efficient use of road space in flowing traffic would be set against fresh
suburbanization stemming from alleviated conditions on the urban fringe.
As befits our Foundation’s purpose, this publication is designed to contribute to the
anticipation and excitement of future discourse, and in this way is aimed at benefitting
society as a whole. The book will place a scientific basis in the hands of representatives
Foreword
vii
from politics, science, the media, academia, and the interested public. This provides the
necessary foundation for an independent and capable examination of the diverse questions
and conditions of autonomous driving.
Prof.Dr. Eckard Minx
President of the Executive Board
Prof.Dr. Rainer Dietrich
Member of the Executive Board
Contents
1
Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Markus Maurer
1
2
Use Cases for Autonomous Driving . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Walther Wachenfeld, Hermann Winner, J. Chris Gerdes,
Barbara Lenz, Markus Maurer, Sven Beiker, Eva Fraedrich
and Thomas Winkle
9
Part I
Man and Machine
3
Automated Driving in Its Social, Historical and Cultural Contexts . . . .
Fabian Kröger
41
4
Why Ethics Matters for Autonomous Cars . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Patrick Lin
69
5
Implementable Ethics for Autonomous Vehicles . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
J. Christian Gerdes and Sarah M. Thornton
87
6
The Interaction Between Humans and Autonomous Agents . . . . . . . . .
Ingo Wolf
103
7
Communication and Communication Problems Between
Autonomous Vehicles and Human Drivers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Berthold Färber
Part II
8
9
125
Mobility
Autonomous Driving—Political, Legal, Social,
and Sustainability Dimensions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Miranda A. Schreurs and Sibyl D. Steuwer
149
New Mobility Concepts and Autonomous Driving:
The Potential for Change . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Barbara Lenz and Eva Fraedrich
173
ix
x
Contents
10
Deployment Scenarios for Vehicles with Higher-Order Automation. . . .
Sven Beiker
193
11
Autonomous Driving and Urban Land Use . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Dirk Heinrichs
213
12
Automated Vehicles and Automated Driving from a Demand
Modeling Perspective . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Rita Cyganski
233
13
Effects of Autonomous Driving on the Vehicle Concept . . . . . . . . . . . .
Hermann Winner and Walther Wachenfeld
255
14
Implementation of an Automated Mobility-on-Demand System . . . . . . .
Sven Beiker
277
Part III
15
Traffic
Traffic Control and Traffic Management in a Transportation
System with Autonomous Vehicles . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Peter Wagner
301
16
The Effect of Autonomous Vehicles on Traffic . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Bernhard Friedrich
17
Safety Benefits of Automated Vehicles: Extended Findings
from Accident Research for Development, Validation and Testing . . . .
Thomas Winkle
335
Autonomous Vehicles and Autonomous Driving
in Freight Transport . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Heike Flämig
365
Autonomous Mobility-on-Demand Systems for Future
Urban Mobility. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Marco Pavone
387
18
19
Part IV
317
Safety and Security
20
Predicting of Machine Perception for Automated Driving . . . . . . . . . . .
Klaus Dietmayer
407
21
The Release of Autonomous Vehicles . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Walther Wachenfeld and Hermann Winner
425
22
Do Autonomous Vehicles Learn?. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Walther Wachenfeld and Hermann Winner
451
23
Safety Concept for Autonomous Vehicles . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Andreas Reschka
473
Contents
24
Opportunities and Risks Associated with Collecting
and Making Usable Additional Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Kai Rannenberg
Part V
25
26
xi
497
Law and Liability
Fundamental and Special Legal Questions for Autonomous
Vehicles . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Tom Michael Gasser
523
Product Liability Issues in the U.S. and Associated Risk
Management. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Stephen S. Wu
553
27
Regulation and the Risk of Inaction. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Bryant Walker Smith
28
Development and Approval of Automated Vehicles:
Considerations of Technical, Legal, and Economic Risks . . . . . . . . . . .
Thomas Winkle
Part VI
571
589
Acceptance
29
Societal and Individual Acceptance of Autonomous Driving . . . . . . . . .
Eva Fraedrich and Barbara Lenz
30
Societal Risk Constellations for Autonomous Driving.
Analysis, Historical Context and Assessment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Armin Grunwald
641
Taking a Drive, Hitching a Ride: Autonomous Driving
and Car Usage . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Eva Fraedrich and Barbara Lenz
665
Consumer Perceptions of Automated Driving Technologies:
An Examination of Use Cases and Branding Strategies . . . . . . . . . . . .
David M. Woisetschläger
687
31
32
621
Editors and Contributors
About the Editors
Markus Maurer studied electrical engineering at Technische Universität München, and
obtained a doctorate at Bundeswehr Universität München. He started his career in industry
as a project manager and head of department in the development of driver-assistance
systems at Audi AG. He is a professor of electronic vehicle systems at Technische
Universität in Braunschweig.
J. Christian Gerdes is a Professor of Mechanical Engineering at Stanford University,
Director of the Center for Automotive Research at Stanford (CARS) and Director of the
Revs Program at Stanford University, Stanford, USA.
Barbara Lenz studied geography and German studies to postdoctoral level at Universität
Stuttgart, where she was also research assistant and project manager in the area of economic geography at the Institute of Geography. She is Head of the Institute of Transport
Research at the German Aerospace Centre (DLR) and a Professor of transport geography
at Humboldt-Universität, both in Berlin.
Hermann Winner studied physics to doctoral level at Universität Münster before he
started his career in industry in advanced engineering and later in series development at
Robert Bosch GmbH where he was responsible for driver assistance systems. He is a
professor for automotive engineering at Technische Universität in Darmstadt.
Contributors
Sven Beiker Formerly Center for Automotive Research at Stanford, Stanford University,
Stanford, Palo Alto, CA, USA
xiii
xiv
Editors and Contributors
Rita Cyganski Institute of Transport Research, German Aerospace Centre (DLR), Berlin,
Germany
Klaus Dietmayer Institute of Measurement, Control and Microtechnology, Universität
Ulm, Ulm, Germany
Berthold Färber Bundeswehr Universität München, Neubiberg, Germany
Heike Flämig Institute for Transport Planning and Logistics, Technische Universität
Hamburg-Harburg—TUHH, Hamburg, Germany
Eva Fraedrich
Germany
Geography Department, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Berlin,
Bernhard Friedrich Institute of Transportation and Urban Engineering, Technische
Universität Braunschweig, Braunschweig, Germany
Tom Michael Gasser Federal Highway Research Institute (BASt), Bergisch Gladbach,
Germany
J. Christian Gerdes Department of Mechanical Engineering, Center for Automotive
Research at Stanford, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA
Armin Grunwald Institute for Technology Assessment and Systems Analysis (ITAS),
Karlsruhe Institute of Technology—KIT, Eggenstein-Leopoldshafen, Germany
Dirk Heinrichs Institute of Transport Research, German Aerospace Centre (DLR),
Berlin, Germany
Fabian Kröger Institut d’histoire moderne et contemporaine (IHMC), Equipe d’histoire
des techniques, CNRS, ENS, Université Paris I Panthéon-Sorbonne, Paris, France
Barbara Lenz Institute of Transport Research, German Aerospace Centre (DLR), Berlin,
Germany; Geography Department, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Berlin, Germany
Patrick Lin Philosophy Department, California Polytechnic State University, San Luis
Obispo, CA, USA
Markus Maurer Institute of Control Engineering, Technische Universität Braunschweig,
Braunschweig, Germany
Marco Pavone Department of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Stanford University,
Stanford, CA, USA
Kai Rannenberg Deutsche Telekom Chair of Mobile Business and Multilateral Security,
Goethe Universität Frankfurt, Frankfurt Am Main, Germany
Andreas Reschka Institute of Control Engineering, Technische Universität Braunschweig, Braunschweig, Germany
Editors and Contributors
xv
Miranda A. Schreurs Environmental Policy Research Centre (FFU), Freie Universität
Berlin, Berlin, Germany
Bryant Walker Smith School of Law, University of South Carolina, Columbia, SC,
USA
Sibyl D. Steuwer Environmental Policy Research Centre (FFU), Freie Universität Berlin,
Berlin, Germany
Sarah M. Thornton Department of Mechanical Engineering, Center for Automotive
Research at Stanford, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA
Walther Wachenfeld Institute of Automotive Engineering—FZD, Technische Universität Darmstadt, Darmstadt, Germany
Peter Wagner Institute of Transportation Systems, German Aerospace Centre (DLR),
Berlin, Germany
Thomas Winkle Department of Mechanical Engineering, Institute of Ergonomics,
Technische Universität München – TUM, Garching, Germany
Hermann Winner Institute of Automotive …
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