Individual Project – Forecasting
Paper instructions
In order to complete the assignment, first read the case write-up for the “Cutting Edge” case. Then, answer the questions listed below for each part of the case. The Part 1 questions refer to the 2 years leading up to the opening of the new call center. Part 2 questions refer to the first 13 weeks of operation after opening the call center.
Prepare a report, which includes your answers to the assignment questions. Your answers must be entered directly into this Word document below each question. Insert each answer below each question on this document and use as much space as needed.
Part 1 (15 points):
Question 1a (5 points): Define a problem statement which reflects the challenge facing Mark as he planned for the opening of the new center.
Question 1b (5 points): Why was Mark’s initial forecast of call volume so far off? What could have been the reasons for this?
Question 1c (5 points): What could Mark have done differently to improve his initial forecast?
Part 2 (25 points):
In answering the Part 2 questions, you should download and refer to Student Data File No. 1 which contains the historical data that was used in preparing the forecast results that are reported in Part 2 of the case write-up document. Note that you do not have to prepare any forecasts in answering this question. Hint: it will be helpful for you to review a time-series plot of the 13 weeks of data contained on Student Data File No. 1.
Question 2a (4 points): Describe the details of the Last Value method used by Harry and explain its accuracy (MAD value) in comparison with the accuracy of the other methods.
Question 2b (4 points): Describe the details of the Averaging method used by Harry and explain its accuracy (MAD value) in comparison with the accuracy of the other methods.
Question 2c (4points): Describe the details of the Moving Average (5 days) method used by Harry and explain its accuracy (MAD value) in comparison with the accuracy of the other methods.
Question 2d (4points): Describe the details of the Exponential Smoothing (alpha = 0.1) method used by Harry and explain its accuracy (MAD value) in comparison with the accuracy of the other methods.
Question 2e (4 points): Describe the details of the Exponential Smoothing (alpha = 0.7) method used by Harry and explain its accuracy (MAD value) in comparison with the accuracy of the other methods.
Question 2f (5 points): Based on the analysis above, provide your recommendations to Mark on daily call volume forecasting to improve the scheduling of the call enter staff. You must recommend a forecasting model as a part of your answer.
Finally, provide your recommendations to Mark on how to modify forecasting process and improve its accuracy.
