ASCI 691 ERU Impact of Technology on the Denigration of Pilots Skills Essay It is important that sources are both valid and reliable. Validity and reliabil

ASCI 691 ERU Impact of Technology on the Denigration of Pilots Skills Essay It is important that sources are both valid and reliable. Validity and reliability provide credibility to your work, setting the foundation for the analysis, recommendations, decision making, and problem-solving of your project. Sources can also include reputable organizations such as the FAA, NTSB, NASA, OSHA, DOT, EPA, DHS, ALPA, NBAA, and many, many others. Submit the outline of your introduction, abstract, table of contents, figure list, your literature review, and your supporting resources. Needs to be in APA 6th edition format and between 10-14 pages. Data collection will be in next week assignment but you should start on it now because data collection does take time. Attached is a sample correctly formatted capstone. Also is attached the proposal topic (however use the formatting from the final capstone example). Running head: EFFECTS OF RUNWAY INCURSIONS AND PREVENTION STRATEGIES 1
Effects of Runway Incursions and Prevention Strategies
by
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A Graduate Capstone Project Submitted to the College of Aeronautics,
Department of Graduate Studies, in Partial Fulfilment
of the Requirements for the Degree of
Master of Science in Aeronautics
Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University
Worldwide Campus
February 9, 2019
EFFECTS OF RUNWAY INCURSIONS AND PREVENTION STRATEGIES
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Abstract
There are several safety concerns in the aviation industry and runway incursions are one of the
most serious. Determining the factors that contribute to runway incursions is of the utmost
importance. Initial research suggests that there have been several prevention strategies put into
place to mitigate runway incursion. However, runway incursions are still an increasingly crucial
safety issue at United States airports. Due to the steady increase in runway incursions over the
previous years, the Federal Aviation Administration implemented the Runway Safety Area
improvement program from 2000-2015. Voluntary safety reporting programs were established
and in 2012 new mandatory safety reporting orders were implemented. This program enabled the
Federal Aviation Administration to collect more data than in preceding years. As a result,
incident reporting increased which significantly helped in the analysis of runway incursions.
Because of the increase in incident data, the Runway Incursion Mitigation program was
implemented in 2015. Other runway safety technologies such as Runway Status Lights were also
implemented to mitigate runway incursions. The research will attempt to determine if there is a
relationship between prevention strategies for runway incursions and the number of runway
incursions that occurred after these strategies were put in place. Data will be obtained utilizing a
three-year period of runway incursion totals from 2015 – 2018 and analyzed through statistical
analysis. Additionally, this project will analyze potential solutions such as airfield geometry to
mitigate runway incursion in the future.
Keywords: runway incursion, safety, mitigation, incident reporting, prevention strategies
EFFECTS OF RUNWAY INCURSIONS AND PREVENTION STRATEGIES
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Table of Contents
Page
Graduate Capstone Cover Sheet ………………………………………………………………………………. 1
Abstract ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 3
Table of Contents …………………………………………………………………………………………………… 4
List of Figures ………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 6
Chapter
I
Introduction
Significance of the Study…………………………………………………………. 8
Statement of the Problem ……………………………………………………… 9
Purpose Statement ………………………………………………………………… 9
Research Question and Hypothesis ………………………………………… 9
Delimitations ………………………………………………………………………. 10
Limitations and Assumptions ………………………………………………………. 10
List of Acronyms ………………………………………………………………… 10
II
Review of the Relevant Literature ……………………………………………………. 11
EFFECTS OF RUNWAY INCURSIONS AND PREVENTION STRATEGIES
Summary ……………………………………………………………………………. 16
III
Methodology …………………………………………………………………………………. 17
Research Approach ……………………………………………………………… 17
Design and procedures………………………………………………. 17
Apparatus and materials ……………………………………………. 17
Sample ………………………………………………………………………………. 17
Sources of the Data ……………………………………………………………… 18
Validity ……………………………………………………………………………… 18
Treatment of the Data …………………………………………………………. 18
IV
Results …………………………………………………………………………………………. 20
V
Discussions, Conclusions, and Recommendations ……………………………… 23
Discussions ………………………………………………………………………… 23
Conclusions………………………………………………………………………… 23
Recommendations ………………………………………………………………. 24
References …………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 26
4
EFFECTS OF RUNWAY INCURSIONS AND PREVENTION
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List of Figures
Page
Figure
1. Runway Incursions and Operations from 2002 to 2015…………………………………… 12
2. Illustration of Runway Incursion Severities ………………………………………………….. 13
3. A typical deployment of a RWSL system …………………………………………………….. 14
4. The Federal Aviation Authority Runway Incursion Totals for
FY2016-FY2018 ………………………………………………………………………………………. 20
5. Contingency Table: Runway Incursion Totals for One, Three-year Period
2016-2018……………………………………………………………………………………………….. 21
6. Contingency Table and Chi-Square Test Results Chi-Square Test Results……….. 21
EFFECTS OF RUNWAY INCURSIONS AND PREVENTION STRATEGIES
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Chapter I
Introduction
The aviation industry is rapidly growing, as air travel becomes a part of life for most
individuals. However, along with the high demand for air travel come certain risks. These risks
must be evaluated and analyzed for the aviation industry to be safe. There are several causes of
major incidents/accidents, including weather, mechanical failure, and Runway Incursion (RI).
Those delegated with the safety of our aviation industry frequently formulate lists of these
incidents/accidents and the causes, and in recent years RI has moved up the list (Namowitz,
2017).
Beginning Fiscal Year 2008 the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) defined a
runway incursion as: “any occurrence at an aerodrome involving the incorrect presence of an
aircraft, vehicle or person on the protected area of a surface designated for the landing and takeoff of aircraft” (Federal Aviation Administration [FAA], 2015). The FAA bases the severity of
runway incursions into categories which range from A to D.
Four categories of runway incursions:
◦Category A is a serious incident in which a collision was narrowly avoided.
◦Category B is an incident in which separation decreases and there is a significant
potential for collision, which may result in a time-critical corrective/evasive response to
avoid a collision.
◦Category C is an incident characterized by ample time and/or distance to avoid a
collision.
◦Category D is an incident that meets the definition of runway incursion such as incorrect
presence of a single vehicle/person/aircraft on the protected area of a surface designated
EFFECTS OF RUNWAY INCURSIONS AND PREVENTION STRATEGIES
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for the landing and take-off of aircraft but with no immediate safety consequences. (FAA,
2015, p. 1)
These categories increase in severity from Category D to category A and can result in the
most severe, which is an incursion that results in a collision. Circumstances, which can cause RI,
include available reaction time, evasive or corrective action, environmental condition, the speed
of aircraft and proximity of aircraft (FAA, 2015). The three error types of runway incursions
include operational incidents, pilot deviations, and vehicle-pedestrian deviations (FAA, 2015).
Voluntary safety reporting programs were established and in 2012, the FAA implemented
new mandatory safety reporting orders, which pressed incident recording to increase (National
Runway Safety, 2015). As a result, in 2015, the FAA implemented the Runway Incursion
Mitigation (RIM) program which utilized the collected data (FAA, 2015). As a result,
approaches have been put in place to mitigate RI.
With the ongoing increase in air traffic, the goal of the air traffic industry is to reduce the
number, rate, and severity of RI. Although strategies have been put into place to mitigate RI,
statistics indicate that there is still an ongoing increase. By evaluating and analyzing runway
incursions, as well as implementing new safety procedure strategies a reduction in RI may be
realized in the future (Horowitz & Santos, 2009).
Significance of the Study
Runway safety is extremely important in the aviation industry. Of the many safety
concerns, RI is one of the most serious. This research is important because the incidence of RI is
still a factor in aviation safety. Each of these incidents/accidents have the possibility to produce
substantial damage to people and property. Preliminary research suggests that there have been
several previous preventions put into place for RI. However, RI is still an increasingly critical
EFFECTS OF RUNWAY INCURSIONS AND PREVENTION STRATEGIES
safety issue at airports in the United States.
Statement of the Problem
As the aviation industry grows the risk of RI increases. RI data needs to be analyzed
since prevention strategies have been put into place to determine if there has in fact been an
increase or decrease in RI. Singh & Meier (2004) stated that preventing runway incursions and
conflicts is amongst the most critical problems in airport ground movement operations. RI is a
problem for airports in the United States. RI occurs daily which can result in collisions and
fatalities. Not only does RI affect pilots, but also aircrew, ground crew, and air traffic control.
RI is also a concern for airplane passengers as well as the FAA who strive to make air travel as
safe as possible for everyone (FAA, 2015).
Purpose Statement
The study analyzed RI data since prevention strategies have been put into place, to
determine if there has in fact been an increase or decrease in RI. Statistical analysis was used to
determine if there was a relationship between prevention strategies for RI and the number of RI
that occur after the strategies have been put into place.
Research Question and Hypothesis
The proposed research question is, has the occurrence of RI decreased since certain
prevention strategies have been put into place? The following hypotheses were developed to
effectively address the research problem.
Ho – There is no statistical relationship between prevention strategies for RI and the
number of
RI that occurred after these strategies were put into place.
H1 – There is a statistical relationship between prevention strategies for RI and the
number of RI that occurred after these strategies were put into place.
4
EFFECTS OF RUNWAY INCURSIONS AND PREVENTION STRATEGIES
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Delimitations
The delimitations or boundaries of this study include independent and dependent
variables. These variables include the implementation of RI prevention (independent variable)
will decrease the incidence of RI (dependent variable). Choosing to use a statistical test could
cause these results to be limited by the reliability of the test.
Limitations and Assumptions
The assumptions that certain aspects of this study are true will be shown through statistical
testing. The Chi-Square Goodness of Fit test will be utilized. The assumptions to this test include
one categorical variable and independence of observations. Violations of these assumptions may
change the conclusion of the research and interpretation of the results (Chi-Square, 2019).
List of Acronyms
ATCO
Air Traffic Control Officer
ASIAS
Aviation Safety Information Analysis
FAA
Federal Aviation Administration
REL
Runway Entrance Light
RI
Runway Incursion
RIL
Runway Insertion Lights
RIM
Runway Incursion Mitigation
RWSL
Runway Status Lights
THL
Takeoff Holding Lights
EFFECTS OF RUNWAY INCURSIONS AND PREVENTION STRATEGIES
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Chapter II
Review of Relevant Literature
Statistical Modelling of Runway Incursion Occurrences in the United States
Runway incursions are a crucial safety concern in the aviation industry. Several
preventative measures have been established. However, more research needs to be accomplished
to prevent these accidents and near-misses. In this article from the Journal of Air Transport
Management, Mathew, Major, Hubbard, and Bullock (2017) found that between 2002 and 2015
there were 16,785 RI at United States airports. These airports ranged in size from small general
aviation to large commercial airline hubs. The authors examined the implementation of the
runway incursion mitigation program and its efforts to develop strategies to mitigate the risk of
runway incursions. One concern in commercial aviation is the need to determine the factors that
cause these runway incursions as well as the severity at different size airports. Statistical
modelling of runway incursions is relevant in this determination due to the ongoing issue of
runway incursions (Mathew et al., 2017).
The authors introduced statistics which presented the annual number of runway
incursions reported through the FAA’s Aviation Safety Information Analysis (ASIAS) database
in 2015 had increased by nearly 80% since 2002; this is significant since there had been a
decrease in the total operations over this period (Mathew et al, 2017). (See Figure 1).
EFFECTS OF RUNWAY INCURSIONS AND PREVENTION STRATEGIES
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Figure 1. Runway incursions and operations from 2002 to 2015. Adapted from “Statistical
Modelling of Runway Incursion Occurrences in the United States” by Mathew, J. K., Major, W.
L., Hubbard, S. M., & Bullock, D. M., 2017, Journal of Transport Management, p. 55. Copyright
2017 by Elsevier, Ltd.
For statistical analysis the Journalist’s data was attained through the Federal Aviation
Authority Runway Safety Office – Runway Incursion database. The outcome of the analysis did
show that runway incursion features were diversified among different sized airports. However,
the article concluded that to date, there has not been a single solution found to prevent runway
incursions in all ranges of airports (Mathew et al., 2017).
Runway Incursions – Clear and Constant Danger
In this article, Runway Incursions – Clear and Constant Danger; published in the INCAS
Bulletin, the author, Maria Mrazova discusses runway safety and how runway incursions are a
serious safety concern. There are three typical scenarios of runway incursions including, Air
Traffic Control Officer (ATCO) – related situation, flight crew- related situation and driver-
EFFECTS OF RUNWAY INCURSIONS AND PREVENTION STRATEGIES
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related situation. Many of these situations can result from related factors (Mrazova, 2014). The
FAA categorizes these runway incursions by severity (See Figure 2).
Figure 2. Illustration of runway incursion severities. Adapted from “Runway Incursions – Clear
and Constant Danger” by Mrazova, M., 2014, INCAS Bulletin, p. 73. Copyright 2014 by
National Institute for Aerospace Research.
This information stressed Mrazova’s concern about the importance of analyzing the
statistics of runway incidents. Subsequently, improving taxiway geometry to identify hotspots,
as well as training, such as communication between a controller and pilot, are ways of mitigating
these issues and decreasing the rate of incidents. This research is relevant because the risk of
runway incursions in aviation is constantly increasing. As the article confirms, the need for
EFFECTS OF RUNWAY INCURSIONS AND PREVENTION STRATEGIES
4
preventative safety methods is crucial to safe air traffic. Even though many proposals have been
implemented, there is still an ongoing effort to make air traffic safer (Mrazova, 2014).
Incorporating Human Factors into The Development and Operational Evaluations of
Runway Status Lights
In the article, Incorporating Human Factors into The Development and Operational
Evaluations of Runway Status Lights; Olszta & Kuffner (2011) responded to the need for human
factor assessment in the design development and operational evaluations of Runway Status
Lights (RSWL). RWSL is a fully automatic advisory system that was designed to reduce the
severity and number of runway incursions. RWSL is comprised of Runway Entrance Light
(RELs), Takeoff Holding Lights (THLs) and Runway Insertion Lights (RILs). The first field
tests of RWSL were performed in 2005.
EFFECTS OF RUNWAY INCURSIONS AND PREVENTION STRATEGIES
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Figure 3. A typical deployment of an RWSL system. Adapted from “Incorporating Human
Factors into The Development and Operational Evaluations of Runway Status Lights” by Olszta,
J. & Kuffner, M. P., 2011, Proceedings of the Human Factors and Ergonomics Society Annual
Meeting, p. 2098
RWSL can provide a direct warning to pilots and vehicle operators using movement areas
of airports. Between 2005 through 2011 four airports were selected by the FAA to test the
prototype RWSL system. These airports included Dallas/Fort Worth, San Diego International
Airport, Los Angeles International Airport, and Boston Logan International Airport. Survey
methodology was utilized by the researchers. Surveys were provided to both pilots and air traffic
controllers who provided valuable feedback. Human factors assessment of the survey questions
was conducted and assisted in identifying issues that resulted in changes that improved the
RSWL system (Olszta & Kuffner, 2011).
Olszta & Kuffner (2011) reported that an independent study by the Department of
Transportation Inspector General attributed a seventy percent reduction in runway incursions at
Dallas/Fort Worth to RSWL in 2008. This outcome prompted the recommendation that RSWL
becomes a standard for all carrier airports by the Airline Pilots Association. The research
verified that RWSL is a safety technology that has been implemented and proven to mitigate
runway incursions.
Strengthening Air Traffic Safety Management by Moving from Outcome-based Towards
Risk-based Evaluation of Runway Incursions
The existing safety management operations at airports evaluate runway incursions by
using severity categories. The current severity categorization of runway incursions is to a certain
EFFECTS OF RUNWAY INCURSIONS AND PREVENTION STRATEGIES
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extent based on the particular outcome of a runway incursion. The article, from the Reliability
Engineering and System Safety Journal, discusses the implementation of a risk-based evaluation
of runway incursions, compared to the outcome-based evaluations used today. Stroeve, Som,
van Doorn, and Bakker (2015) presented a new framework for the analysis of runway incursions.
This context did not use an outcome-based severity category, which is used today but is based on
the risk of scenarios associated with runway incursions. This scenario referred to the state at the
initiation of the runway incursion. The results of this new framework could have the capability of
assisting safety management to be more effective. (Stroeve et al., 2015).
Utilizing a risk-based evaluation can provide more feedback on runway incursion than
the out-come based that is being used today. One strength of the risk-based approach is the
evaluation of the potential outcome of a runway incursion at the start. Even though the outcome
of the …
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